Cancun reaches moderate agreement despite split over Emissions.

HISTORY IN THE NEWS:



History never dies. It is reborn every minute of every day.






HISTORY IN THE NEWS: DEDICATED TO THE ORIGINS OF CONTEMPORARY EVENTS AROUND THE WORLD.
 
In 2400-2700 AD, “the geologic record yields the rather startling conclusion that the climate could be comparable to that experienced during the Age of Dinosaurs, which was as warm as any time in the last billion years.” -Thomas J. Crowley, REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS PAST: GREENHOUSE LESSONS FROM THE GEOLOGIC RECORD.

TAG:  Nations agreed to a 16 per cent cut in emissions, when at least 30 per cent was needed to keep global temperatures at 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels- about the year 1800.


IN THE NEWS: THE CLIMATE CONFERENCE, CONCLUDING AT CANCUN, MEXICO, UNDER THE SPONSORSHIP OF MEXICAN PRESIDENT FELIPE CALDERON, SHOWED FEW SIGNS OF GETTING BEYOND THE 2009 COPENHAGEN ACCORD WHICH ENDED WITHOUT ANY OF THE BINDING AGREEMENTS NEEDED TO PROP UP KYOTO. AT THE LAST MINUTE, HOWEVER,  DELEGATES FOR 193 COUNTRIES WERE ABLE TO FORGE A COMPROMISE, SIGNING  THE CANCUN AGREEMENTS ON A 'GREEN CLIMATE FUND' TO BE RAISED BY RICHER NATIONS FOR POORER,  DEVELOPIGN NATIONS. OTHERWISE, A 16 PER CENT  CUT TO EMISSIONS IS ALL THAT THE NATIONS HAVE AGREED TO DESPITE THE NEED FOR AT LEAST 30 OER CENT EMISSION CUTS TO KEEP THE EARTH'S TEMPERATURE AT 2 DEGREES CELSIUS AOVE PRE-INDUSTRIAL LEVELS. NEVERTHELESS, THE 'GREEN CLIMATE FUND' WAS THE LEAST DIVISIVE OF SEVERAL POSITIONS:

1)BETWEEN THE 'BASIC GROUP' OF EMERGING NATIONS- SOUTH AFRICA, CHINA, INDIA AND BRAZIL- AND THE NATIONS OF THE DEVELOPED WORLD, AMONG THEM THE EUROPEAN UNION, THE U.S. AND CANADA. THE DEVELOPED GROUP INSISTED THAT ALL MAJOR POLLUTERS, INCLUDING INDIA AND CHINA, ADHERE TO THE SAME EMISSION STANDARDS, WHILE THE 'BASIC GROUP' WANTED THE ORIGINAL KYOTO AGREEMENT, BY WHICH EMERGING, AS WELL AS POOR NATIONS ARE ONLY OBLIGED TO TAKE "NON-BINDING VOLUNTARY MITIGATING ACTIONS."
2) CANDA, RUSSIA AND JAPAN WANTED ALL COUNTRIES INCLUDIGN THE EMERGING NATIONS OF CHINA AND INDIA, BOUND TO A SINGLE LIST OF COMMITMENTS.
3)DEVELOPING OR POOR NATIONS WANTED PLEDGES TO DEEPER EMISSIONS CUTS BY RICH NATIONS,
4) THE ONLY INITIATIVE AROUND WHICH THERE WAS AGREEMENT:  A 'GLOBAL CLIMATE FUND' TO HELP POOR NATIONS PRESERVE RAINFORESTS AND PROTECT THEMSEVLES FROM CIMATE DISASTERS.



WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: In 1985 an international consensus was reached by the UN and other bodies around the fact that the earth was warming artifically due to man-made carbon gases. That conclusion was given further scientific and organizational weight by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
                
By 1990 negotiations were underway to develope a convention and international framework for dealing with Climate Change. This convention, the FCCC was ratified by international signatories at the Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro in 1992, its goal, to "prevent dangerous (human) interference with the climate system." The agreement, which set a target of the year 2000 for keeping C02 to 1990 levels came into effect in 1994. The First annual conference of the FCCC, held in Berlin in 1995, concluded that  ". . . the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate."
        
The second annual conferecne in Geneva stated that "projected change in climate will result in significant, often adverse, impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors, including food supply and water resources and on human health." In 2001, at Kyoto, Japan,178 countries signed on to the Kyoto Protocol, setting higher targets for the reduction of greenhouse gases in leading, developed industrial nations, and lower targets for emegring nations like China and India, a source of great contention because of the immense potential of the latter's economies, some wealthy nations declaring that China and India should bear their equal share of reductions,despite the argument that emerging nations needed a large, carbon-based economy to bring the standards of liing fo their huge populations up to Western levels.

The issue in general became more urgent in 2005 as scientists and indigenous peoples of the arctic pointed to a melting polar ice caps. In the 2009 Climate Summit at Copenhagen, the split around Western nations' insistence on a single standard and the emerging nations' refusal to be dragged by the West into equal levels of C02 reduction, prevented any consensus on Kyoto and it appeared the accord was doomed.


IN HISTORY: The cooling period in the late Middle Ages, known as the "Little Ice Age" began to taper off in the 15th century but still caused crop failures, famines and severe cold snaps in 17th century Europe.  In the 18th century a period of warming was very gradually under way which, like the Little Ice Age was a part of the world's natural climatic fluctuation.

By the 19th century however, Europe's Industrial Revolution added the first greenhouse gases artifically produced from fossil fuels, to the earth's atmosphere. The last cooling effects of the Little Ice Age were gone by the mid-19th century with European glaciers in measurable retreat by the century's end, still, however, part of a natural process. It was during that time that Leo Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist discovered that that C02 gases did warm the earth's atmopshere. But even as the mass industrialization that embraced Europe after World War One contributed to global warming, natural fluctuations in temperature remained dominant preventing significant warming  in a period called the Mid-20th Century Climatic Optimum, a time of balmy, moderate temperatures in the 'thirties and 'forties.

A further cooling from 1950 to 1980, was explained as a primary effect of urban air pollution, or smog -different from C02 itelf-  diminishing the effects of the sun. It was after 1980 that the warming effects of increasing amounts of industrially produced C02 in the atmopshere were measurably significant. 

RELEVANT DATES

The ‘Little Ice Age’

1300-1500- cooling of the global climate.

Warming returns very slowly after Little Ice Age.

1710- glaciers reach their maximum.

1710-1750- cold winters persist but summers are warmer in Europe.

The Industrial Revolution Increases Greenhouse Gases

1816- worst summer on record in northern Europe: frost in July followed by famine,

1849-1905- major drought in Arizona.

1856- Little Ice Age is Over-
-warming: glaciers begin to retreat.

-incidents of heavy smog  lead to deaths in London and orther large cities in  Britain.

Global Warming Discovered.

1890- European glaciers begin to retreat.

1892- London smog results in 1,000 deaths.

1892- Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist is pioneer in the theory of global warming increased by C02 greenhouse gases
1914-1918- World War I produces Mass Industrialized Societies.

The Mid-20th Century Climatic Optimum
 1942-1953- balmy, optimum summers in Europe.
 1949- Callendar, a British scientist connects the 10% increase in C02 gases between 1850 and 1940 to the warming of Europe and North America since the 1880s.
The Optimum Gives way to 3 decades of Cooling as Urban air pollution increases.

1950-1980- a cooling trend.

1957- increasing CO2 build-up detected by Scripps Oceanographic institute.  
1958- Keeling, a scientist with the Kripps Institute makes the first reliable measurements of C02 at 312 parts per million and rising in the atmosphere at the Mona Loa observatory in Hawaii. 


Greenhouse Effect Believed Beyond Doubt.
1980: Greenhouse effect becomes apparent with warming trend. International committees get down to work.
1985- a conference of the United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization establishes scientific consensus on global warming.
1988- the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lays down international consensus on scientific conclusions about climate change.
1990- the first IPCC report leads to negotiations for a United nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC).

The FCCC and the IPCC.

1992- Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro- countries meet to sign the United nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC) . The Convention's goal is to "prevent dangerous (human) interference with the climate system." Industrialized nations agree to implement policies and measures with the aim of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 1990 levels by 2000
1994- March 24- the FCCC signed at Rio DeJaneiro in 1992 comes into effect..
1995- the First Conference of the Parties (CoP1) of the FCCC held in Berlin.The second IPCC report declares ". . . the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." This is a new benchmark of international scientific consensus.

1996- -Second Annual Conference of the Parties (CoP2) held in Geneva. Conference endorses the IPCC finding of a "discernible human influence on global climate" and that "projected change in climate will result in significant, often adverse, impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors, including food supply and water resources and on human health."

Kyoto.
2001-  Ex-President Bill Clinton's pro-environmental policy gives way to deregulation in favour of industry under President-elect George Bush. 

2001- July 7- 178 countries sign onto the Kyoto protocol
2005- scientists observe rapid melting of the polar ice caps and a slowing of the Gulf stream which warms northern Europe..
2009- The Copenhagen Summit of leading nations on climate change fails to produce significant agreements let alone resolutions as developing nations defend their right to full use of carbon technologies and refuse to be lectured to by major polluters of the G-8.

CONTENTS: SCROLL DOWN FOR:
DISTANT BACKGROUND TO THE EVENTS

RECENT BACKGROUND TO THE EVENTS
.PREVIOUS ENTRIES
REMOTE BACKGROUND TO THE EVENTS

CROSS-CENTURY SUMMARY
TIMELINE FOR THE HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE

DISTANT BACKGROUND TO THE EVENTS: In the long geological record, our own time is called the Holocene and began as the Last Ice Age started to draw to a close, about 15,000 BC. Within that larger scale, there commenced a long period of global warming that continues today; and clearly the original causes of this 17,000 year period of warming were natural, while the causes of its present extension and acceleration are not. (Large scale climate changes usually last about 10,000 years- we may prove the exception). As glaciers and the polar caps receded, sea levels rose at about a meter per century until about 5,000 BC. Human progress moved more rapidly taking a leap forward in the "Bolling Warm Period" in northern Europe, a four-century time of intense development in hunting, crafts and other skills from about 12,200 BC to 11,800 BC but still associated with the 'Mesolithic' or 'Middle Stone Age' period. Rising water levels produced the present arrangement of continents, with Australia cut off from Southeast Asia, England separated from continental Europe, and the cutting of the Bering Strait between Siberia and Alaska. Further warming, favourable to the beginnings of civilization, a period known as 'the Atlantic Optimum' brought permanent human settlement in the Fertile Crescent of the Middle East in abo0ut 9,000 BC and regular farming by about 7,000 BC. A so-called 'golden age' of climate followed with the 'Holocene Maximim' , a 'Neolithic' or 'Copper Age' period when ideally warm conditions may have produced the agricultural 'Garden of Eden' myths found in several cultures. Tropical growth along the Arabian Sea and relatively humid conditions in the Sahara are typical of this period. Agriculture improved along with climate and the Bronze Age European Danubian people of 4,000 BC imported grains from the Middle East, which wouldn't have survived before that time. At this point, the natural "greenhouse gases" CO2 , CH4 and nitreous oxide increased to safe levels which would remain the same until modern, pre-industrial times. The optimum exceeded itself in Mesopotamia where drought wiped out much of the population about 2000 BC. In contrast to this early 'optimum' there began a cooling and increase in rainfall known as the 'pessimum' of the Iron age around 1000 BC, descending to an especially cold wave in 450 BC during the expansion of ancient Greece. By 250 BC, the rise of Rome was qualified by a decline in rainfall which caused wheat cultivation to be replaced by vineyards and olive groves. By 170 BC, when wetter conditions had returned, so much of the Italian peninsula was taken up by vineyards and olive groves that grain had to be imported to Rome from Egypt. Far to the east, a drying out of the steppe caused Asian tribes to shift westward around 450 AD and eventually to invade the Roman Empire. We must remember that these 'pessimums' and 'optimums' are oscillations within the larger and more gradual warming that we still experience and which began about 15,000 BC. And sometimes, even, they are only local events. The next warming began around 1000 AD and reached a balmy 'optimum' around 1150 AD in Europe, although it's difficult to generalize for the rest of the globe. The 'optimum' was short-lived, for a serious European cooling, known as the 'Pessimum of the Modern Age' began about 1200. This would give way to Europe's 'Little Ice Age'.


RECENT BACKGROUND TO THE EVENTS: By the middle of the thirteenth century, the 'Little Ice Age' had begun in Europe and glaciers were growing again. Late in the century, a continent away, in the American south-west, blistering drought drove native Americans southward. The pessimum in Europe, meanwhile, would continue with variations, for five hundred years, into the 19th century. There is some irony in the fact that within the larger, more gradual Holocene warming that continues today, the largest single trend may have been this long period of cooling. After 1300, glaciers expanded quickly, temperatures dropped and rainfall increased. Fishing replaced the growing of grain in Iceland. The "Little Ice Age" was at its worst between 1400 and1700. Rivers began to freeze over in winter where they had not done so before. The 17th century was a history of cruel winters, crop failures, famine. Glaciers extended farther than ever down mountain valleys. The nadir was reached at the end of the century. In 1697 one third of the population of Finland was killed by famine. Glaciers reached their maximum extent in 1710. Cold springs and cool, wet summers characterized the 18th century in Europe. The 'flour war' of 1775 in the Paris region erupted among farmers suffering crop failures. The continuing 'Little Ice Age' had its role in sparking the French Revolution: in 1788, a year before the fall of the Bastille, the French grain crop was destroyed by hail, causing drastic food shortages. The summer of 1816 proved the worst on record when famine followed frosts in July. The Little Ice age then relented and drew to a close in the middle of the 19th century. Glaciers began their retreat in 1856. The warming was extremely gradual, though, staggered dramatically in 1883 by the gigantic eruption of Mount Krakatoa in Indonesia, whose clouds of ash dimmed and cooled the atmosphere the world over. In 1892 the first theory in global warming caused by man-made C02 increases was advanced by the Swedish scientist, Arrhenius. In the early 20th century, a warming of the North Atlantic increased the growing 'optimum' in Europe. There was a slower warming in the Middle East and south Asia. In sub-tropical regions there were fewer cyclones, less rainfall and arid regions expanded. In China and Russia, political genocide conspired with periodic drought to cause massive famines. The 1930s saw the first warming of the Arctic though it stopped around 1940 to resume again in 1970. In 1949 the British scientist Callendar, made the first provable links between C02 increases and global warming trends from the 19th into the 20th centuries. In 1966 there was famine in India. The oscillations of the 20th century are rather frequent, providing a more complex picture. 1942 to 1953 was a balmy, mild optimum followed by a cooling trend until 1980. Afterward, the present trend toward hotter temperatures began. A 1985 conference of the United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization established the first scientific consensus on global warming. There was widespread agreement that greenhouse gases caused by increased human economic activity, especially the use of fossil fuels, was affecting weather patterns. Since 1988, the International Panel on Climate Change and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change has worked toward getting coordinated international action on greenhouse gas reductions. 1990, meawhile, was the hottest year, globally, on record. In 2001, the Kyoto protocol was signed by 178 countries- a commitment to reducing greenhouse gases which has since begun to unravel due to disgreements about the need for fossil-fuel based industries to maintain the lifestyle of rich nations and raise the living standars of poor nations. Recently, the heating of the atmosphere has caused record numbers of cyclones and hurricanes, particularly in the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico. One of the worst was Hurricane Katrina which more or less destroyed New Orleans, killing at least a thousand in 2005. In 2007 to 2008, heavy rainfall, mudslides, disastrous flooding, raging forest fires, freak cold spells and and massive snowfalls have been attributed to the disruption of natural weather patterns by the Greenhouse Effect.

REMOTE BACKGROUND TO THE EVENTS: From 200 million to about 2 million years ago, the world, still cooling from its creation in the Big bang, was much warmer than it is now. In the Cretaceous period, beginning about 100 million years ago, the earth was hot, about 6 to 8 degrees above present temperatures. C02 levels were much higher than now, significant changes in C02 being detectable over spans of 1 million years. (As Thomas J. Crowley writes in Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record, “Barring a radical change in the manner in which energy is utilized in the future, continued depletion of the fossil fuel reservoir in the next few centuries could result in levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases that are comparable to the warm time period of the Cretaceous.”) The Cretaceous is the age of the first global cooling. But at the end of that period, around 65 million BC, there was still tropical vegetation and the presence of dinosaurs near today's Arctic Circle. The dinosaurs became extinct around that time and in 53 million BC, the Eocene, of the Age of the Mammals began and early primates and tropical vegetation still flourished in the north regions. After the Miocene, beginning about 25 million BC, the Pilocene saw the emergence of Homo Erectus and the old Stone Age, with temperatures still warmer in 1 million BC than they are today. Several ice ages followed before the Last Ice Age of about 100,000 BC, in our Middle Stone Age. CO2 , CH4, and nitreous oxide, commonly known as green-house gases, were at low levels. Low sea levels associated with global cooling allowed human migrations across land bridges from Southeast Asia to Australia and from Asia across the Bering Strait to North America. The ice age reached its coldest point around 20,000 BC. Humans survived using new technologies involving fire, animal skins and methods of building. The Last Ice Age drew to a close around 15,000 BC.



CROSS-CENTURY SUMMARY: Since its formation, the earth has been cooling, with periods of warming separated by ice ages along the way. The last 17,000 years or 'Holocene' period, the 'age of man' has been a time of warming since the end of the last ice age. But the warming part of the cycle has been distorted by artificially produced greenhouses gases, in addition to the earth's natural C02. The Holocene is only a sliver of the entire life of the earth but if indeed C02 emissions prolong this last warm period and the cycle of ice ages has come to an end, man will have changed the environment forever, and likely for the worse.


TIMELINE FOR THE HISTORY OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ENVIRONMENT:

360 million BC- 70% of life forms on earth destroyed in a cataclysm.

200 to 2 million BC- the world is much warmer than it is now.

Cretaceous Epoch

100 million BC- the Cretaceous period- height of warming- 6 to 8 degrees above present temperatures. High levels of C02. Significant changes in levels of C02 are detectable on spans of 1 million years. “Barring a radical change in the manner in which energy is utilized in the future, continued depletion of the fossil fuel reservoir in the next few centuries could result in levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases that are comparable to the warm time period of the Cretaceous.”- Remembrance of Things Past: Greenhouse Lessons from the Geologic Record by Thomas J. Crowley.

First Cooling Begins.

-despite cooling, sub-tropical plants and animals still live far to the north.

65 million BC- end of the age of dinosaurs, whose remains have been found as far north as Alaska.

Eocene Epoch

53 million BC- age of the mammals- tropical plant and primate remains have been found near the arctic circle.

24 million BC- Miocene Epoch

5 million BC- Pilocene Epoch

-hominids walk the earth.

1.6 million BC- Pleistocene Period or Early Stone Age.

-homo erectus.

1 million BC- global climate is considerably warmer than today. Sea levels are higher by as much as 100 to 300 meters.

-in the last 800,000 years there have been about 17 significant peaks and valleys of temperature change. The high peaks represent interglacial periods.

Holstein Period in Western Europe- 700,000 to 123,000 BC.

620,000 BC- Ice age peaks (at its coldest)

420,000 BC- Ice age peaks (at its coldest). Warming begins.

Hoxinian Phase of the Hostein Inter-glacial Period. Middle Pleistocene.

330,000 BC- high sea-levels- 25 meters higher than present- the Hoxinian is named for Hoxne in eastern England.

-development of mixed woodlands in England.

320,000 BC- Ice age peaks.

-during interglacial warming periods advances appear in human development.

The Saale Glaciation Ice Age in northern Europe.

250,000 BC- Ice Age peaks

-Ice age ends, interglacial warming begins.

200,000 BC- northern Europe is semi-tropical.

-appearance of early homo sapiens.

140,000- BC- Ice age peaks (at its coldest)..

130,000 BC- next interglacial warming- temperatures similar to the present.

130,000 BC- 120,000 BC- sea levels are 5-8 meters higher than at present.

125,000 BC- end of the Saale Ice Age.

The ‘Eemian’ or Last Interglacial warming; beginning of Upper Pleistocene or Middle Paleolithic

123,000 BC- in some regions, a period of warming similar to that of the present day.

120,000 BC- ‘Barbados III’ high sea levels.

-homo sapiens Neanderthalis- stone carving, stone tools. Brain capacity is close to that of modern man.

-humid tropics on the Arabian Sea coasts.

115,000-80,000 BC –cool, wet period in Europe.

The Last Ice Age

100,000 BC –Last Ice Age begins- The advance and retreat of ice ages is attributed to the Milankovitch effect- slow changes in the orbit of the earth which change the effect of solar radiation on the earth’s surface.

-‘Saint Germain 1’ heavy forest in NE France.

-‘Barbados II’ high sea levels.

-modern Homo Sapiens or ‘Crogmagnon’ man adapts relatively well to colder conditions.

-near the equator, reduction of tropical rain forests and expansion of savannas. Northern tundras are dry.

-abundant horses and reindeer in western Europe. Mammoths provide great quantities of meat which keeps well in cold temperatures.

-CO2 , CH4 and nitreous oxide, commonly known as green-house gases are at low levels.

-due to ice and low sea levels, early humans cross the Bering Strait from Asia to populate North and South America.

80,000 BC- cooling becomes more rapid. ‘Barbados I’ sea levels equal to present. Most human settlement remains south of the Alps.

70,000 BC- low sea levels allow migrations from Asia to Australia and Asia across the Bering Straits to North America.

-heavy ‘St. Germain 2' mixed oak and woodland in NE France.

50,000 BC- homo sapiens sapiens.

End of Upper Pleistocene or Late Stone Age.

30-20,000 BC- cooling or climatic deterioration forces migrating peoples south from Alaska.

-Neolithic man thrives in the Tibesti Massif, now the center of the Sahara desert.

20,000 BC- maxumum cold of last ice age. Ice sheets 2 km thick extend as far south as St. Louis Missouri. Sea levels, due to evaporated water stored in ice sheets, are 105 meters below what they are today.

-human habitation driven south of the Alps. Mammoth hunting for food and shelter.

16,000 BC- due to low sea levels, ( 130 meters below present levels) humans cross a land bridge from Asia to Australia.

The present Holocene Period Begins with the Late Peleolithic Age.

15,000 BC–present Global Warming begins.

-plains begin to give way to forests,

Late Paleolithic.

-sea levels begin to rise, a trend that will continue until about 5,000 BC at a meter per century.

13,000 BC- due to the arrival of warm winds, wheat-fields begin to be sown in the northern Middle East.

-the land bridge of the Bering Strait is finally cut.

Mesolithic Age.

12,000-6000 BC- polar ice cap shrinks, ending the Last Ice Age.

12,200- 11,800 BC- the Bolling warm period in northern Europe- period of rapid settlement,

-intense cold period- the Older Dryas

11,600- 10,800 BC- the Allerod warm period in northern Europe- period of rapid settlement.

-human development becomes more rapid.

-water level rises, cutting off Australian Aboriginies from East Asia. Britain is cut off from Europe; Scandinavia from Germany; Russia from Alaska.

-European grasslands replaced with hardwood forest,

9,000 BC -first permanent settlements start to appear in the Fertile Crescent.

-humans start populating coastal settlements.

7,000 BC- farming begins in the Fertile Crescent.

The ‘Atlantic Optimum’- the Holocene Interglacial; the Neolithic Age.

6,000 BC world-wide warming increases- caused by a massive flood of fresh water into the Atlantic ocean; a warming trend that will last to the present day. Climate change on this scale usually lasts for 10,000 years.

-heavy humid tropical growth on the Arabian Sea.

-the decline in precipitation of the African-Asian Monsoon causes a drying out especially in North Africa and the Middle East which continues to this day.

-heavy ‘St Germain 2’ mixed oak and woodlands in NE France.

Holocene Maximum; Chalcolithic (Copper) age.

-‘golden age’ and ‘garden of eden’ myths of abundance are born.

5,500-2,350 BC- trend toward humidity in the Sahara.

-agriculture begins in the valley of the Indus and Mesopotamia.

Proto Dynatic Period.

4,200- 4,000 BC- Danubian people in the Rhine region begin growing grains brought from the Middle East due to temperate climate shift.

4,000-3,000 BC- the warm, ‘sunny’ millennium, world-wide, said to be similar to today but this example cannot be used to project a similar pattern into the future.

-CO2 , CH4 and nitreous oxide, commonly known as green-house gases increase to levels found in modern, pre-industrial times.

Bronze Age- dawn of human pullution,

3000 BC- the period of warming culminates. Warming ceases.

2000 BC- drought wipes out much of the population in Mesopotamia.

-first cities and towns: air pollution from tanneries, dust, manure and smoke. Water pollution is especially bad in ancient Rome; in India and Israel, religious purity laws keep water cleaner.

-timbering strips land in Phoenicia, Italy, Greece, Babylon, Italy.

Iron Age.

1000 BC- temperatures decline. Rainfall increases.

The Pessimum of the Iron Age.

450 BC- a cold wave in Europe.

Greece

500-400 BC- decline of the ‘northern Bronze Age' in Europe.

250 BC- declining rainfall helps to put an end to the agrarian age of the Roman Republic. Dependence on corn and wheat shifts to the cultivation of olive orchards and vineyards. Gradually, grain has to be imported.

Rome

170 AD- climate dampens; but Rome’s best land is taken up by olive groves and vineyards, so grain still has to be imported.

400 AD- gradual drying out of the steppe and Gobi desert help to prompt the Barbarian invasions of Rome.

Serious soil erosion in Italy, due to over-grazing by goats has been held as a contributing cause for the fall of the Roman Empire.

Medieval Warm Periods.

1000- warming trend begins.

1100-1200- warming trend reaches its high point.- although it remains uncertain whether this was true around the globe.

1200- The Pessimum of the Modern Age.

-heavy rains ruin English crops and vineyards.

1250 AD- glaciers begin to grow.

1276-1299- Great Drought in SW America- Indians driven southward.

1300-1800- general growth of glaciers causes a cold wet period.

-fishing replaces agriculture in Scandinavia.

1310-1323- rainy period in Europe.

1315- Europe: year of floods.

The ‘Little Ice Age’

1300-1500- cooling of the global climate.

1300-1350- fishing replaces cereal-growing in Iceland.

The Bubonic and other plagues wipe out populations in Europe and Asia, gradually prompting a  movement toward public health.

Large regions made vulenerable to erosion due to heavy wood cutting and timber clearing throughout the middle ages in England, France and Germany.

1450-1890- the ‘Little Ice Age’ at its broadest definition. Rivers freeze in areas where they are unfrozen today and glaciers reach their lowest altitude.

1460-1550- southwest Baltic and Thames River remain unfrozen.

-warm period peters out in 1550.

1550- cooling in Europe.

1588- an immense storm in the English Channel sinks the Spanish Armada, killing about 20,000 sailors.

1590-1850- the “long advance” of the glaciers.

1590-1650- cold winters in Europe. Crop failures in Scandinavia.

1600-1710- advance of glaciers accelerates

1630-1699- repeated periods of bad harvest in Europe.

1689-1698- severe cold in Europe: the ‘Little Ice Age.

1693-1694- very poor harvests in Europs.

1697- famine kills 1/3 of population of Finland.

1709- severe cold; crop failure and famine in Europe.

Warming returns very slowly after Little Ice Age.

1710- glaciers reach their maximum.

1710-1750- cold winters persist but summers are warmer in Europe.

1740- ‘arctic’ winter in Europe.

The environment becomes a concern during the Englightment as free-thinking individuals begin to denounce slums, poor drinking water and inhumane conditions in prisons.

1750-1800- cold springs, warm autumns in Europe.

1756- the Lisbon earthquake.

1765-1775- cold, wet summers in Europe.

1755- the 'flour war'- the poor in the Paris region revolt over shortages.

1780- massive hurricane sweeps the Caribbean, leaving 20,000 dead.

Water polution recongized as a serious problem in the Unites States by Benjamin Franklin.

1788- July 13- hail storm destroys the French harvest.

1789- severe food shortages in France.

1798- The food supply is bound to be outstipped by population increase leading to inevitable starvation if not stemmed by vice, disease, or 'self restraint' according to Thomas Malthus in his Essay on Population. 

The Industrial Revolution Increases Greenhouse Gases

1816- worst summer on record in northern Europe: frost in July followed by famine,

1849-1905- major drought in Arizona.

-water pollution caused by the dripping of tar from coal gas into river.

-air pollution from coal smoke and chemical factories.

1851 -wilderness conservation gets its first boost in the U.S. when a great tree "the Mother of the Forest" is cut down to a storm of protest which leads in turn to the inauguration of the a national parks system.

1855- water pollution  is discovered as the cause for cholera when a London epidemic is traced to a contaminated pump by Dr. John Snow.

Little Ice Age is Over- 1856- warming: glaciers begin to retreat.

-urban epidemics of typhoid and cholera vindicate the protests of reformers pointing to appalling poverty, filth and water contaimation in the urban slums of Britain and America.

-incidents of heavy smog  lead to deaths in London and orther large citgies in  Britain.

1864- cyclone in Calcutta kills 70,000.

1870-1950- glaciers in retreat

1876- cyclone in Bangladesh kills about 215,000.

1876-1879- 9 million die from drought and famine in China.

1881- typhoon is China kills 300,000.

-water pollution as a source of disease gradually being understood by science.

1883- ash from the explosion of Karakatoa volacano may have caused cooling, by diffusing 18 cubic kilometers of dust through the air, blocking the sun.

1887- about 1 million die in flooding when China's Yellow River overflows its banks.

The Warming North Atlantic.

1890-1940- warming in north Atlantic areas like Europe and the United States. Less pronounced warming in India, Indonesia and the Middle East. Northeastern Canada, most of South America, southwest Africa, Central Asia, Pakistan, the Indian Ocean, southeast Asia nd Australia are unaffected.

1890-1940- in subtropical areas: decrease in rainfall, fewer cyclones, expansion of arid zones.

1890-1950- infrequency of volcanic eruptions and absence of volcanic cloud said to be a partial cause of warming.

1890- European glaciers begin to retreat.

1892- London smog results in 1,000 deaths.

1892- Arrhenius, a Swedish chemist is pioneer in the theory of global warming increased by C02 greenhouse gases.

The Progressive Era.

-food and water safety, sanitation, workplace pollution, living and working conditions for the poor and working classes receive attention in the U.S. from reformers in the 'Progressive Era.'

1900- Galveston Texas hurricane kills 6,000.

-land conservation and a 'wise' use policy for commercial lumbering  put forward  by US president Teddy Roosevelt. John Muir opposes 'wise use' and instead advocates universal wilderness preservation.

-social activists make progress in a slow, uphill battle.

-struggle for conservation and urban reform is waged by the Women's Club and the Sierra Club.

1907- famine in China kills about 20 million.

1909- F4 tornado in Brinkley, Arkansas kills 49.

1910- forest fire burns 3 million acres in Idaho and Montana, leaving 86 dead.

1914-1918- World War I produces Mass Industrialized Societies.

1920-1940- marginal warming in the Mediterranean.

1921- droughts in the Ukraine and elsewhere in the Soviet Union kill around 5 million.

1924- pollution of the US Atlantic seaboard leads to the National Coast Anti-pollution League which in turn gets an international oil dumping treaty passed in the US Congress.

1925- the Tri-state tornado in Missouri, Illinois and Indiana kills 700.

1928- drought ad famine in China kill 3 million.

1929-1938- warming summers in Poland, Lapland and Russia.

-leaded gasoline brought in for universal use by General Motors despite the determined activism of Alice Hamilton.

1930s- acceleration of warming in the Arctic.

1931- flooding in China kills 3.7 million.

1932- famine in Russia kills 5 million.

1936- 5 million die in China's 'New Famine'.

1935- the Great Labour Day Hurricane hits the Florida Keys- the strongest ever upon landfall.

1940-1970- no further warming in the Arctic.

1941-42- 3 million dead in famines in China.
Auto, chemical and oil companies of the US working with the Nazi company Farben to develop leaded gasoline. Meanwhile the development of synthetic rubber is put to a stop.

The Mid-20th Century Climatic Optimum
-chemicals from renewable resources and synthetic rubber are finally used by the allies to win the war.

1942-1953- balmy, optimum summers in Europe.
1948- deadly smog- Dora, Pennsylvania.
1948- individual responsibility toward humanity and the world first treated in Aldo Leopold's 'Sand County Almanac.'
1949- Callendar, a British scientist connects the 10% increase in C02 gases between 1850 and 1940 to the warming of Europe and North America since the 1880s.

1950- hurricanes start to be named alphabetically.

The Optimum Gives way to 3 decades of Cooling s Urban air pollution increases.

1950-1980- a cooling trend.

1952- December smog in London held responsible for deaths of 4,000.

1952- flood in Devon kills dozens.
1953- deadly smog in New York.

1953- storms and flooding kill dozens in East Anglia.
1955- first international air pollution conference. 
1956- Deadly smog in London.
1957- increasing CO2 build-up detected by Scripps Oceanographic institute.  

1958- Typhoon Vera in Japan kills 5,000.

1958- Keeling, a scientist with the Kripps Institute makes the first reliable measurements of C02 at 312 parts per million and rising in the atmosphere at the Mona Loa observatory in Hawaii.

1962- last major smog in London.

Rachel Carson's 'Silent Spring'.
1962- perhaps the first widespread, public warning about the environment appears with Rachel Carson's 'Silent Spring.'
1962- the Ethyl corporation is sold off, having developed leaded oil for General Motors and Standard Oil 

1963- planetary cooling accompanied by subtropical rainfall.
1965- US Senate hearings reveal falsified research into leaded gasoline.

1966- famine in India kills 1.5 million.

1969- Hurricane Camille, hits Gulf Coast in US killing hundreds- strongest of 20th century.

River of Fire, Love Canal and Three Mile Island.
1969-  oil and chemicals saturating the Cuyahoga River near Cleveland, Ohio catch fire on June 22, leaving an entire river in flames.
1969- Conference on Man and His Evironment  in  San Franciso.

1969- famine in China kills about 200 million.

1970- Cyclone and tidal wave in Bangladesh kills about 300,000.
1970- Environmental Protection Agency inaugurated by US government.

1971- 100,000 killed in floods in Viet Nam.

1972- blizzards kill 4,000 in Iran.

1973- monsoons in India kill 1,200.

1974- April 3-4th -340 killed in 148 separate tornados in US.

1977- 20,000 killed by cyclone in India.
-air pollution singificantly reduced by use of catalytic converters in new cars using unleaded fuel.
-water pollution in North America is alleviated by sewage treatment technology as rivers and lakes are brought back to life.
1978- decades of dumping toxic waste into the Niagara Falls NY Love Canal before it was covered over and built with housing ends in a waste explosion and the poisoning of homes and yards for hundreds lof residents. 
1979- a partial core meltdown at the Three Mile Island nuclear plant in Pennsylvania draws attention to the dangers of nuclear technology.

1979- Hurricane David kills 2,000 in Caribbean and Eastern US.
-the pollution of  ground water and air with toxic chemicals continues to be a serious problem.

Greenhouse Effect Believed Beyond Doubt.

1980: Greenhouse effect becomes apparent with warming trend. International committees get down to work.

1981- Nov 21- 104 tornadoes hit the UK.

1983- Ash Wednesday forest fires in Australia kill 1/2 million livestock and 76 people.

1984- Dec. 2- gas poisoning kills over 2,000 in an industrial accident at the Union Carbide plant in Bhopal India.
1985- a conference of the United Nations Environmental Program and the World Meteorological Organization establishes scientific consensus on global warming.
1985- environmental activism receives a blow but with publicity as the Greenpeace vessel, the Rainbow Warrior is bombed in New Zealand by French secret service agents.

Chernopbyl, the Ozone Layer and the Exxon Valdez.
1986- major meltdown of  a nuclear reactor at Chernobyl in the Ukraine leaves long-term damage to people, plant and animal lif.e

1987- the destruction of the ozone layer by fluorocarbons finally gets a response from margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan when they sign the Montreal Protocol.

1988- the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) lays down international consensus on scientific conclusions about climate change.
1989- March 24- a massive tract of Alaskan shoreline is fouled, destroying sea life, plant life and livelihoods as the Exxon Valdez tanker runs aground spilling ten million gallons of crude oil into the Pacific.

1989- tornado kills 1,300 in Bangladesh.

1990- globally, the hottest year on record.

1990- the first IPCC report leads to negotiations for a United nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC).

1991- last London smog.

1991- 130,000 killed in Bangladesh cyclone.
-war-related environmental disaster created when Persian Gulf conflict ends in thousands of burning oil wells.

1992- hurricane Andrew in Florida causes 26 billion dollars in damage.

The FCCC and the IPCC.

1992- Earth Summit in Rio De Janeiro- countries meet to sign the United nations Framework Convention of Climate Change (FCCC) . The Convention's goal is to "prevent dangerous (human) interference with the climate system." Industrialized nations agree to implement policies and measures with the aim of stabilizing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at 1990 levels by 2000.

1993- the Great Midwest Flood in Mississippi Valley causes 18 billion dollars in damage.

1994- international protest concerning the probable ennvironmental impact of China's Three Gorges Dam fails to stop construction from beginning on schedule.
1994- March 24- the FCCC signed at Rio DeJaneiro in 1992 comes into effect.
1995- environmental activist Ken Siro Wawa executed by the Nigerian government after criticizing  oil drilling practices of  Shell oil which worked closely with Nigeria.
1995- the First Conference of the Parties (CoP1) of the FCCC held in Berlin.The second IPCC report declares ". . . the balance of evidence suggests that there is a discernible human influence on global climate." This is a new benchmark of international scientific consensus.

1996- -Second Annual Conference of the Parties (CoP2) held in Geneva. Conference endorses the IPCC finding of a "discernible human influence on global climate" and that "projected change in climate will result in significant, often adverse, impacts on many ecological systems and socio-economic sectors, including food supply and water resources and on human health."

1998- Hurricane Mitch causes huge damage in Honduras.

1998- 2,200 forest fires in Florida require evacuation of 80,000.

1999- 318 MPH tornado hits Oklahoma City.

Kyoto.
2001-  Ex-President Bill Clinton's pro-environmental policy gives way to deregulation in favour of industry under President-elect George Bush. 

2001- July 7- 178 countries sign onto the Kyoto protocol.

2001- extreme flooding in Viet Nam and Cambodia

2001- extreme flooding in Mozambique and southeast Africa.

2003- devastating cedar forest fire in California.

2004- Hurricanes Charlie, Francis, Ivan and Jean hit Florida, causing 22 billion in damage.

Hurricane Katrina

2005- Hurricane Katrina leaves thousands dead and over a million homeless in new Orleans.

2005- scientists observe rapid melting of the polar ice caps and a slowing of the Gulf stream which warms northern Europe.

2006- forest fires and drought in western Canada.

2007- severe droughts southeast US- Cyclone in Bangladesh kills over 1,000; severe flooding in Mexico; Hurricane Felix causes severe damage in Caribbean and Central America; flooding in South Asia displaces 30 million. Severe flooding in Mozambique. Severe forest forest in southern California, wiping out residential areas in Malibu and San Diego.

2008- blizzards cause deaths and paralyse parts of Iran and China. Severe flooding in Peru and Bolivia.
2009- Jan-Feb-forest fires in southern Victoria kill more than 200.

2009- The Copenhagen Summit of leading nations on climate change fails to produce significant agreements let alone resolutions as developing nations defend their right to full use of carbon technologies and refuse to be lectured to by major polluters of the G-8.

The Gulf Oil Spill.
2010- May-August-  the worst environmental disaster in US history unfolds after the explosion of a British Petroleum oil rig in the Gulf of Mexico, threatening the livelihoods of thousands of fishermen and destroying a region still recovering from the impact of Hurricane Katrina.

Aug. 3- massive monsoon flooding which kills over 1,500 in Pakistan's Swat Valley is exacerbated by climate change with the melting of the Himalayan glaciers which feed Pakistan's rivers.

The Future

-”The mid-range scenarios employed in IPCC projections for the end of the next century would result in global mean surface temperatures that exceed any well-documented warming in the last million years.” -Thomas J. Crowley, REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS PAST: GREENHOUSE LESSONS FROM THE GEOLOGIC RECORD.

2400-2700 AD- “the geologic record yields the rather startling conclusion that the climate could be comparable to that experienced during the Age of Dinosaurs, which was as warm as any time in the last billion years.” -Thomas J. Crowley, REMEMBRANCE OF THINGS PAST: GREENHOUSE LESSONS FROM THE GEOLOGIC RECORD.